The Basic Mechanism Of Successful Sports Betting
It is fully possible to make money betting on sports, though becoming successful is not a matter of talent, or even luck and its not going to happen overnight either. Successful sports bettors have tons of experience under their belts and they may have access to information beginners could only dream of. Here are some of the basics that will help you get started. While this information alone will not be enough to turn you into a successful pro, it will provide you with a few useful pointers.
First of all, before you even get started, you need to understand a few things about the nature of the sports betting industry. I know youll be tempted to bet on your favorite team or on the team you know is likely to win, but youre going to have to toss all that out the window. This is the first and most important mistake that rookie sports bettors make: they follow the crowd and bet on the favorite. In the long-run, this is a negative EV proposition.
While Sports Handicapping is indeed an important part of the game, you need reverse handicapping just as much. Reverse handicapping is about drawing conclusions from the lines the bookmaker offers and incorporating these conclusions into your betting strategy.
Handicapping and reverse handicapping should always go hand in hand because thats the only way youre ever going to find the one factor that will offer you EV+ on your wagers: the hidden value. The hidden value is an interesting concept and the easiest way to explain is through an example I suppose.
Say a team, which is obviously a favorite in a match-up, plays on the road against a potent underdog. By potent I mean a team which is well capable of pulling off an upset, especially on home court/field. Given the fact that the home court/field advantage is among the most underrated ones in handicapping, the favorite will attract a large number of bets. Couple that with the fact that squares (who form the majority of the sports betting public), love to bet the favorite and you have the makings of a landslide.
Now lets take look at the situation from the bookmakers perspective: his primary objective is to balance every match-up as much as possible. That means he needs to get an approximately equal number of bettors on both sides of a match-up to make sure he doesnt end up losing money. That way, hell be able to pay the winners out from the losers losses and to keep the vig. If there are too many bettors on one side of a match-up, hell first attempt to balance the situation by making the other side more attractive. Hell achieve that by moving his lines and thats where your hidden value rears its head. The bookie knows all too well that hes offering extra value for one side of the bet, yet he does it on purpose in order to attract bettors.
The problem with this hidden value is, the bookie doesnt really like to flaunt it. If the match-up becomes too one-sided and the value on the side of the underdog becomes way too obvious, the bookie will often cover the square bets himself, squashing the hidden value.
Even if the bookmaker doesnt kill the hidden value, its not exactly easy to locate for a regular everyday rookie sports-bettor. One has to develop a knack for hidden value situations. Hidden value will surface in games where a hyped favorite takes on a potent underdog on the road, in games which have the lime-light stolen by some other much more popular game, etc. As a general guideline: keep an eye on where the crowd goes: the hidden value is likely to surface on the other side of the bet.
If youre unable to handicap and reverse handicap your games properly, you can always shop around for sports picks. Professional sports handicappers will do the work for you, all you have to do is to bring the money. Make sure the operation that sells you the picks is a reliable one though. There are numerous scams in this industry as well.
Poker works the same way the hidden value does in sports betting. A rakeback deal like the Absolute poker rakeback or the full tilt rakeback will increase the EV+ you secure through correct strategy decisions.